ABC22 - Burlington and Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports - ABC22.com2.22.12 An Actual Snowstorm?!? Really?

2.22.12 An Actual Snowstorm?!? Really?

Finally! Some snow! And decent snow totals for most areas!

Here is what my latest thinking is on Friday's system.

Low pressure, currently located in northern Wyoming and Montana will scoop through the midwest and hook back toward the Northeast by Friday morning. With a little bit of clearing Thursday evening, temperatures should manage to briefly dip back into the upper 20s Thursday night, setting the stage with cold air to allow for snow.

Precip should develop from southwest to northeast generally by 4-6 am Friday morning. Precip type should be all snow. Snow will continue to fall for much of Friday, but with some mild air still encroaching into the storm, some rain or sleet will likely mix in across southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire, and perhaps up the major valleys (Champlain and CT River Valley) at some point midday Friday. This shouldn't put too much of a damper on snow totals, but will make the consistency a bit heavier (FINALLY! You can build a small snowman!).

Snow totals will probably range from 4-8" fairly widespread over most of northern New York, and northern/central Vermont, as well as the White Mountains. Slightly lower totals on the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley of 2-5" (with the higher end of that range in the northern extent of the valley), and finally about 3-6" in the CT River Valley.

As the storm system pulls away by Friday night, a period of upslope snow will develop across the northern mountains as the wind turns northwesterly. This could contribute to additional snow accumulation along the NW slopes of the Adirondacks, and the Green Mountains, and the northern White Mountains. Grand totals in the northern mountains may near a foot of accumulation locally, say, near Jay Peak. 

As for the wind, it looks as though a period of rather blustery east-southeast wind will develop from about 2000-4000' in the atmosphere. This could produce locally higher snow totals along the eastern facing slopes of the Green and White Mountains, and produce some downsloping effect in western Vermont from about Middlebury to Rutland to Bennington. As mentioned above, the wind will turn northwesterly as the storm pulls away Friday night, and should still be sustained 8-18 mph in the valleys, and 20-35 mph in the mountains, and becoming somewhat lighter through Saturday (aka: no wind holds on the slopes on Saturday) :) 

Town by town forecasts do get a bit more tricky, but here is my current thinking for some pinpoint locations through Saturday:

In Vermont:

Burlington: 3-5"

Rutland: 2-4"

Montpelier: 5-8"

Saint Johnsbury: 3-6"

Jay Peak: 8-12"

In New York:

Plattsburgh: 5-7"

Saranac Lake, NY: 5-9"

Malone: 5-8"

In New Hampshire:

Lebanon: 3-6"

Plymouth: 4-7"

Littleton: 4-7"